All during the Coronavirus lockdown Americans have been told to stay home because leaders claim to be following the science. Until something more appealing to our politicians comes along, like a brutal police killing and thousands of protesters in the streets. Then science goes out the window.
It’s not just the Corona Virus science which has been abandoned. The entire narrative that police routinely shoot unarmed black suspects is completely unfactual and unscientific.
Let us start with the statistics about police shootings. According to data gathered by the Washington Post, in 2019 police killed 1004 suspects during about 375 million encounters with the public, about one in 375,000. Black suspects shot totaled 235, some 23.5%, a percentage which is higher than the percentage of black population, 13%. However, based on crime rates, where blacks commit 53% of murders and 60% of robberies, the proportion of blacks shot by police is about half what would be expected.
During 2019 a total of 41 unarmed suspects were shot by police, with 9 being black. Most of these suspects died while attacking police, and only two shootings were considered wrongful with charges brought against police. Overall, about one in 40 million police encounters will lead to the shooting of an unarmed black person. While each police shooting should be investigated, and all of them are, the risk that an unarmed black person will be killed by police is about equal to the risk of death from lightning.
Police shooting has been the subject of many scientific studies. Researchers at Harvard, the University of Maryland, and Michigan State University have found that there is not any “evidence for anti-Black or anti-Hispanic disparity in police use of force across all shootings, and if anything, found anti-white disparities.” The National Academy of Science published research showing “No significant evidence of anti-black disparity in the likelihood of being shot by police.” Thus, the science shows that police shootings of black suspects are rare and are not motivated by racism.
Even so we now see protestors and some politicians arguing for lower police presence, and some want to replace the police with citizen committees. We have historical evidence from the Jim Crow era that “citizen committees” are unrestrained by police or constitutional protections, and are quickly turned into lynch mobs. Other historical examples include the millions of deaths from the “Cultural Revolution” in China and the mob rule during the French Revolution which became known as the Reign of Terror.
Scientific studies show that reducing police presence can lead to devastating increases in crime. A new academic study from Roland Fryer and Tanaya Devi analyzed the aftermath of police shootings which led to rioting in Ferguson, Chicago, and Baltimore. As police became targets of retribution from political leaders they withdrew from proactive policing and contacts with the public. Mr. Fryer says “My estimates show that we lost a thousand more lives, most of them black as well, because of an increase in homicides.”
This is the irony and the tragedy of the lie that racist police are routinely killing black people. The anti-police protests are turned into riots by radical groups and black neighborhoods are burned. Jobs, businesses, and communities are lost. Then as the police withdraw under political attack crime spikes and hundreds of black lives are lost.
Black lives do matter. Over 7,000 black lives are lost to homicide every year, a rate which is eight times higher than for whites and Hispanics and about 1000 times the loss from police shootings of unarmed blacks. In Chicago alone over Memorial Day weekend 10 blacks were killed, more than the total unarmed black suspects killed by police in 2019. Scapegoating the police will not solve the problem of criminality which is devastating black neighborhoods.
White guilt is not going to solve the problem either. White people are not responsible for the sins of their forefathers, but all of us are responsible before God to follow the mission statement of Jesus “To preach good news to the poor… to proclaim freedom for the prisoners and recovery of sight for the blind, to release the oppressed, to proclaim the year of the Lord’s favor” (Luke 4:18-19).
The Bible says we should “Mourn with those who mourn” (Romans 12:14), and so we should with our brothers who are troubled by the tragic death of George Floyd.
Then let us humbly pray for God’s wisdom and seek out our black brothers to help them bring restoration to their shattered communities.
“Bestow on them a crown of beauty instead of ashes, the oil of gladness instead of mourning, and a garment of praise instead of a spirit of despair.” –Isaiah 61:3